Valuation

What is this watch worth, and how liquid is its market?

The range is the answer. Everything under it tells you how much weight to put on it.

Reference no.
126610LN
Case
41mm Oystersteel
Movement
3235
Produced
since 2020
Reference detail

Confidence is not a marketing score. It falls when there are too few verified sales or too few competing pieces for a range to mean much — and it should.

Rolex Submariner Date

Fair value · as of 02 Oct 2026

$14,940
$14,320 – $16,100
Bid
$14.2K
Ask
$15.6K
Fair mid
$14.9K
Band $14.3K – $16.1KRound trip $1,440
Bid / ask spread
10.2%
$14.2K / $15.6K
Time to sell
11 days
Median observed listing duration
Model confidence
92%
Depth of verified sample
Liquidity88/100Deep
Model confidence92/100
Explore price vs. sale timing
Price vs. time to sell

Choose between price realization and speed

There isn't one correct selling price. Every step above fair value buys more money and costs disproportionately more time.

0d15d30d45d60+dFair value$12.7K (−15%)$14.9K $17.9K (+20%)Shaded: estimated range · line: median estimate
Your price vs. fair value: +$0 / 0.0%
I want to sell within…

Based on observed listing turnover, relative pricing, competing inventory, and historical transaction activity for this reference.

Model inputs
Competing inventory
611 pieces
Confirmed sales
214 / 90 days
Listing exits
302 / 90 days
Median listing duration
11 days
Bid / ask spread
10.2%
Liquidity score
88 / 100

Listing exits include removals and expiries; a removed listing is not necessarily a confirmed sale. Demo prototype: the curve and dealer/private adjustments are illustrative and not derived from ChronoPrices transaction data.

Why

What the range is built on

  • 214 trades in 90 days
    Frequent turnover keeps the quoted range close to what a buyer actually pays.
  • Bid/ask spread 10.2%
    Tight spread — round-trip cost on a quick exit is contained.
  • 11 days median time to sell
    611 pieces currently competing for the same buyers.
  • Model confidence 92%
    Enough verified transactions that the fair range is statistically supported.
Condition ladder

What the range looks like for your piece

Same reference, different condition and packaging. These are the adjustments that explain most disagreements between buyer and seller.

ConditionAdjustmentIndicative
Unpolished, unworn+6.0%$15,850
Excellent, light wear+1.0%$15,100
Very good, even wear-4.5%$14,250
Good, visible wear-11.5%$13,200
Fair, needs service-21.0%$11,800
Three years

How the midpoint got here

Oct 23→Oct 26
$12.8K low$14.9K high+15.8% over period
Oct 23May 24Dec 24Jul 25Feb 26Sep 26

Have a specific piece in mind? Condition, packaging and service history move the number further than most buyers expect.

Price this piece