What is this watch worth, and how liquid is its market?
The range is the answer. Everything under it tells you how much weight to put on it.
- Reference no.
- 15202ST
- Case
- 39mm Stainless steel
- Movement
- 2121
- Produced
- 2012–2022
Confidence is not a marketing score. It falls when there are too few verified sales or too few competing pieces for a range to mean much — and it should.
Audemars Piguet Royal Oak 'Jumbo' Extra-Flat
Fair value · as of 02 Oct 2026
Choose between price realization and speed
There isn't one correct selling price. Every step above fair value buys more money and costs disproportionately more time.
Based on observed listing turnover, relative pricing, competing inventory, and historical transaction activity for this reference.
- Competing inventory
- 118 pieces
- Confirmed sales
- 41 / 90 days
- Listing exits
- 63 / 90 days
- Median listing duration
- 34 days
- Bid / ask spread
- 12.9%
- Liquidity score
- 62 / 100
Listing exits include removals and expiries; a removed listing is not necessarily a confirmed sale. Demo prototype: the curve and dealer/private adjustments are illustrative and not derived from ChronoPrices transaction data.
What the range is built on
- 41 trades in 90 daysRegular turnover, but individual sales still move the range noticeably.
- Bid/ask spread 12.9%Moderate spread — expect to give up a point or two on an immediate resale.
- 34 days median time to sell118 pieces currently competing for the same buyers.
- Model confidence 34%Thin sample — the fair range is wide and easily moved by one strong print.
What the range looks like for your piece
Same reference, different condition and packaging. These are the adjustments that explain most disagreements between buyer and seller.
| Condition | Adjustment | Indicative |
|---|---|---|
| Unpolished, unworn | +6.0% | $83,300 |
| Excellent, light wear | +1.0% | $79,400 |
| Very good, even wear | -4.5% | $75,100 |
| Good, visible wear | -11.5% | $69,600 |
| Fair, needs service | -21.0% | $62,100 |
How the midpoint got here
Have a specific piece in mind? Condition, packaging and service history move the number further than most buyers expect.
Price this piece