Valuation

What is this watch worth, and how liquid is its market?

The range is the answer. Everything under it tells you how much weight to put on it.

Reference no.
5711/1A-010
Case
40mm Stainless steel
Movement
26-330 S C
Produced
2006–2021
Reference detail

Confidence is not a marketing score. It falls when there are too few verified sales or too few competing pieces for a range to mean much — and it should.

Patek Philippe Nautilus

Fair value · as of 02 Oct 2026

$133,400
$126,000 – $147,800
Bid
$121.5K
Ask
$139.9K
Fair mid
$133.4K
Band $126K – $147.8KRound trip $18,400
Bid / ask spread
15.1%
$121.5K / $139.9K
Time to sell
48 days
Median observed listing duration
Model confidence
21%
Depth of verified sample
Liquidity51/100Thin
Model confidence21/100
Explore price vs. sale timing
Price vs. time to sell

Choose between price realization and speed

There isn't one correct selling price. Every step above fair value buys more money and costs disproportionately more time.

0d40d80d120d160+dFair value$113.4K (−15%)$133.4K $160.1K (+20%)Shaded: estimated range · line: median estimate
Your price vs. fair value: +$0 / 0.0%
I want to sell within…

Based on observed listing turnover, relative pricing, competing inventory, and historical transaction activity for this reference.

Model inputs
Competing inventory
74 pieces
Confirmed sales
26 / 90 days
Listing exits
41 / 90 days
Median listing duration
48 days
Bid / ask spread
15.1%
Liquidity score
51 / 100

Listing exits include removals and expiries; a removed listing is not necessarily a confirmed sale. Demo prototype: the curve and dealer/private adjustments are illustrative and not derived from ChronoPrices transaction data.

Why

What the range is built on

  • 26 trades in 90 days
    Sparse turnover: treat the range as a hypothesis, not a print.
  • Bid/ask spread 15.1%
    Wide spread — an exit within a year is likely to cost real money.
  • 48 days median time to sell
    74 pieces currently competing for the same buyers.
  • Model confidence 21%
    Thin sample — the fair range is wide and easily moved by one strong print.
Condition ladder

What the range looks like for your piece

Same reference, different condition and packaging. These are the adjustments that explain most disagreements between buyer and seller.

ConditionAdjustmentIndicative
Unpolished, unworn+6.0%$141,400
Excellent, light wear+1.0%$134,700
Very good, even wear-4.5%$127,400
Good, visible wear-11.5%$118,100
Fair, needs service-21.0%$105,400
Three years

How the midpoint got here

Oct 23→Oct 26
$112.7K low$160K high-17.2% over period
Oct 23May 24Dec 24Jul 25Feb 26Sep 26

Have a specific piece in mind? Condition, packaging and service history move the number further than most buyers expect.

Price this piece