Valuation

What is this watch worth, and how liquid is its market?

The range is the answer. Everything under it tells you how much weight to put on it.

Reference no.
SBGA211
Case
39.5mm Stainless steel (Brilliant Hard)
Movement
9R65
Produced
since 2014
Reference detail

Confidence is not a marketing score. It falls when there are too few verified sales or too few competing pieces for a range to mean much — and it should.

Grand Seiko Hi-Beat Spring Drive 'Snowflake'

Fair value · as of 02 Oct 2026

$5,820
$5,460 – $6,340
Bid
$5.4K
Ask
$6.1K
Fair mid
$5.8K
Band $5.5K – $6.3KRound trip $730
Bid / ask spread
13.6%
$5.4K / $6.1K
Time to sell
27 days
Median observed listing duration
Model confidence
36%
Depth of verified sample
Liquidity58/100Tradeable
Model confidence36/100
Explore price vs. sale timing
Price vs. time to sell

Choose between price realization and speed

There isn't one correct selling price. Every step above fair value buys more money and costs disproportionately more time.

0d25d50d75d100+dFair value$4.9K (−15%)$5.8K $7K (+20%)Shaded: estimated range · line: median estimate
Your price vs. fair value: +$0 / 0.0%
I want to sell within…

Based on observed listing turnover, relative pricing, competing inventory, and historical transaction activity for this reference.

Model inputs
Competing inventory
96 pieces
Confirmed sales
47 / 90 days
Listing exits
73 / 90 days
Median listing duration
27 days
Bid / ask spread
13.6%
Liquidity score
58 / 100

Listing exits include removals and expiries; a removed listing is not necessarily a confirmed sale. Demo prototype: the curve and dealer/private adjustments are illustrative and not derived from ChronoPrices transaction data.

Why

What the range is built on

  • 47 trades in 90 days
    Regular turnover, but individual sales still move the range noticeably.
  • Bid/ask spread 13.6%
    Moderate spread — expect to give up a point or two on an immediate resale.
  • 27 days median time to sell
    96 pieces currently competing for the same buyers.
  • Model confidence 36%
    Thin sample — the fair range is wide and easily moved by one strong print.
Condition ladder

What the range looks like for your piece

Same reference, different condition and packaging. These are the adjustments that explain most disagreements between buyer and seller.

ConditionAdjustmentIndicative
Unpolished, unworn+6.0%$6,170
Excellent, light wear+1.0%$5,880
Very good, even wear-4.5%$5,560
Good, visible wear-11.5%$5,150
Fair, needs service-21.0%$4,600
Three years

How the midpoint got here

Oct 23→Oct 26
$4.8K low$5.9K high+19.9% over period
Oct 23May 24Dec 24Jul 25Feb 26Sep 26

Have a specific piece in mind? Condition, packaging and service history move the number further than most buyers expect.

Price this piece